Precision Pollster

Unlike other surveys in the last week of the campaign, the Waikato University sample had New Zealand First and the Alliance in the right order. The unit double-checked its sample after finding the Alliance scoring lower than in other polls last week.

But it turns out to have been almost spot on. The Alliance won just 10.1 per cent on election night, a little less than the 10.6% in the poll.

Yesterday the designers of the poll, Dr Gabriel Dekel, Dr Jack Vowles and Dr Alan Simpson, telephoned each other to savour the moment.

“We are quietly pleased,” said Dr Simpson, “We have been at it [polling] for 10 years and you get better as you go along.”

“When Jack and I started, all the interviews had to be recorded by hand and it was a laborious business. The department [of public policy and political science] took the plunge an set up the computer laboratory.”

Dr Dekel, director of the research unit, adapted sampling software from the United States and has a system based on randomised telephone numbers nationwide.

The computer selects the numbers and calls them before interviewers, most of them students at Waikato, follow the carefully scripted questionnaire on screen.

“It’s important to get the flow of questions right so that you gain the confidence of people you are interviewing,” Dr Si9mpson said.

The election poll was easier than many because the subject was usually interesting to those asking the questions and most of those asked for answers.

Praise came also from the new MP for Wellington Central yesterday. Speaking about the election result, the leader of ACT, the Hon Richard Prebble, said “the Herald poll has turned out to be the most accurate in predicting the election.”